It’s important to take a long-term view.
Nvidia (NVDA -2.61%) stock soared more than 500% over the past three years, prompting investors to wonder if it would be ripe for a slowdown 2024. But enthusiasm about this artificial intelligence (AI) chip leader continued, and the stock surged nearly 150% in the first half. This is as the company reported triple-digit gains in earnings and prepared for the launch of a whole new architecture, known as Blackwell, later this year.
Meanwhile, to make this high-flying stock more accessible to a broader range of investors, Nvidia completed a 10-for-1 stock split a few weeks ago. This brought the per-share price down from more than $1,000 to about $120. Now, as the second half of the year starts to unfold, investors are wondering if the stock performance slowdown some anticipated will happen — or if this top stock will continue to roar higher and even reach $200. Is Nvidia heading to $200 in the second half? Let’s find out.
Why Nvidia has skyrocketed
First, a quick bit about why Nvidia stock has skyrocketed in recent years — after all, there are plenty of chipmakers out there. Nvidia’s success is due to the top performance of its graphics processing units (GPUs), or chips used to power AI tasks. They are recognized as the fastest around, and on top of this, the company has developed an entire ecosystem of products and services, meaning customers can rely on Nvidia for all of their AI needs.
Nvidia’s AI portfolio is available through the major cloud companies, making it easy to find and access these top products and services.
All of this has helped Nvidia’s revenue to soar to records quarter after quarter. In the most recent three-month period, Nvidia reported $26 billion in total revenue, driven by AI demand. This is more than double the company’s full year revenue as recently as in the 2020 fiscal year. So the AI boom has driven enormous growth at Nvidia, and that’s why investors have piled into the stock.
Now, let’s consider the company’s share price, about $121 as of this writing. Wall Street’s average estimate calls for a 10% gain within the coming 12 months, but at least one of the most bullish analysts predicts the stock will advance 65% to $200 within that time period. Hans Mosesmann, a Rosenblatt analyst, recently raised his price target to that level from $140 — that would bring Nvidia to almost a $5 trillion valuation from $2.9 trillion right now. Today, the market’s most valuable company is Microsoft, with a market cap of more than $3.2 trillion.
Nvidia’s triple-digit growth
Though this may seem like a big potential jump, especially if we look at market value, it’s important to remember that Nvidia continues to grow in the triple digits. The company predicts revenue of about $28 billion in the second quarter, which would represent an increase of more than 100% from the year-earlier period. And Nvidia has a huge catalyst ahead, the release of its Blackwell architecture and chip — demand already has exceeded supply and Nvidia expects this trend to continue into next year.
All of this means it’s very possible Nvidia could reach $200 a year from now. What about in the second half of this year though? Nvidia is likely to gain, maybe even in the double digits, buoyed by optimism about the Blackwell release and ongoing growth. But I wouldn’t expect the stock to reach $200 so quickly. Some investors may wait to monitor the Blackwell release and see how it translates into earnings growth.
What does all of this mean for you as an investor? It actually doesn’t matter whether Nvidia reaches $200 this year, next year, or a bit later. What’s most important is Nvidia’s ability to maintain its AI leadership and generate earnings growth over time — if the company can do this, there’s reason to be optimistic about long-term stock performance. And, right now, considering Nvidia’s solid AI platform and plans for annual innovation, there’s reason to be optimistic about this top AI stock over the long run.
