US stock futures edged higher and crude oil dipped as investors focused their attention on a report of a push to secure a potential ceasefire in the war in Iran.
S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%. Brent crude was trading near $108 a barrel. The dollar weakened. The yield on 10-year Treasuries hovered around 4.36%. Several markets in Europe and Asia were still closed for the Easter holiday.
Axios reported that US allies are pressing for a last-minute deal with Iran, citing sources with knowledge of the talks. The people, who were not named, said chances of reaching a deal over the next 48 hours are low. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump issued increasingly aggressive threats to destroy Iran’s power plants starting Tuesday. Iran rejected Trump’s latest ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“This mix of coercion and negotiation leaves the market without a stable reference,” said Sergio Avila, senior market analyst at IG Group in Madrid. “The rebound makes tactical sense, but it doesn’t yet signal a solid improvement in the macroeconomic and financial outlook.”
Traders are seizing on any headlines that may affect sentiment after the Iran war darkened the outlook and stoked inflation concerns, roiling expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Attention remains firmly on energy prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for Middle East oil flows.
Trump, in renewing his threats to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure, told Axios that he would be “blowing up everything over there” if Iran doesn’t make a deal. Trump said he plans a news conference at 1 p.m. local time on Monday and posted about a Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline, without offering details.
“Asian markets in particular tend to react quickly to any sign that worst-case scenarios, like a full disruption of oil flows, might be avoided,” said Tareck Horchani, head of sales trading prime brokerage at Maybank Securities. “That’s why you’re seeing a modest rebound, especially in sectors like semiconductors and cyclicals.”
What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say…
“Traders are focusing on a report that US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire. That shows how keen investors are to see a de-escalation in the Iran war, which is dominating a risk aversion theme across markets. Should President Trump push back against ceasefire hopes when he speaks later on Monday, this positive mood will reverse. But for now, amid thin liquidity, it is the main story for investors to get stuck into.”
