The White House on Friday tried to look past government data showing a jump in inflation driven by the war in Iran.
Consumer prices posted their largest monthly gain since 2022, according to new Labor Department data, as rising costs at the gas pump led overall prices up by 3.3% compared to a year ago.
On a “core” basis, stripping out food and energy, prices rose by a more modest 2.6% from a year ago, which was below expectations.
The White House largely focused on that latter figure. Deputy press secretary Kush Desai said the economy “remains on a solid trajectory,” while acknowledging in a statement that food and gas prices were higher.
He pointed to drops in specific goods, from eggs to prescription drugs to televisions, that he said “are falling or remain stable thanks to President Trump’s policies.”
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett delivered a similar message in a Fox Business interview on Friday, referencing the core number and touting lower costs for items like beef and sports tickets.
Still, the overall data — not to mention the Fox Business graphic that flashed on screen as Hassett spoke — showed energy prices up more than 12% over the year.
President Trump didn’t immediately react to the numbers.
The White House’s overall case for optimism — even as economists warned Friday that gas price shocks may be extended and bleed into other goods — was that hostilities in Iran are nearing the end and oil prices would then drop quickly.
Hassett on Friday said the White House believed the economy was in for “a temporary energy disruption” and said in another Fox appearance Thursday that the economic effects of the war are “a temporary distraction that will very, very quickly go away.”
But there are plenty of reasons to expect that the economic effects will be felt for some time. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed despite Trump’s threats, and economists have long noted that gas prices tend to go “up like a rocket and down like a feather.”
The dynamics mean that pain at the pump could be felt for weeks, even if the fragile ceasefire holds and a more permanent peace is negotiated during talks scheduled for this weekend in Pakistan.
For now, gas prices remain elevated, averaging $4.15 per gallon on Friday, according to AAA, up from $4.09 a week ago but down from $4.16 yesterday.
Independent economists painted a mixed picture in reaction to Friday’s inflation news.
Bernard Yaros, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, predicted that next month’s inflation reading “will also be uncomfortably strong.”
He also pushed back on the comparison with the price shock seen in 2022, when pandemic-related supply chain issues and Russia’s war in Ukraine drove up prices.
“Despite the temptation … this isn’t 2022,” Yaros wrote, but added that things could get worse with “any weakening in the job market, which is usually hurt by energy shocks with a lag.”
Democrats, for their part, largely focused on the headline number.
“Trump’s war with Iran has driven up costs,” Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren said. “Every family struggling to fill their gas tank or buy groceries knows exactly who is responsible.”
Angela Hanks, chief of policy programs at the left-leaning Century Foundation, focused on additional costs down the road, saying that “more widespread impacts could be on the way in future reports.”
She noted that potential shortages of oil, helium, and fertilizer — all of which travel through the Strait of Hormuz in large quantities — “threaten to drive higher prices on everything from dishwashers, to cars, to groceries.”
